In This Edition...

How can a week that started so bullishly for stocks end so lethargically? Oh yeah - I know how...it's a habit the market got into about two months ago. I've got a tip for how to handle that kind of indecisive market action today, now that the pattern is on 'repeat'.

I've also got an explanation behind all the 'Morning Calls' you've been seeing in the blog this week. If you have no idea what I'm talking about and you're also the kind of person who likes money, you (and your portfolio) will definitely want to learn a little more about this new site upgrade. The response to those thoughts/guidance has been great so far.

And finally, we'll wrap up with an important detail not specifically mentioned in Friday's press release from Smart Energy Solutions. Stockgroup also has an announcement about this coming Monday, which you'll find in the sidebar to the right. 
 

	Dancing With Indecision

Before I tell you how I think you can best take advantage of the current market environment, let me tell you why I think things are the way they are. 

I see two forces ate work now - indecision, and anxiety. Maybe the two go hand-in-hand. That's not inherently bearish though...it can be bullish too. The thing is, recently it can be neither bullish nor bearish for more than a few days at a time. In fact, the one thing I've observed that's actually been profitable is to....

....bet against the strong moves . By that, I just mean buy opens well lower than the prior day's close, and sell opens that are well above the prior day's closing level. The more extreme the open is, the better your odds are. It may take between two and four full trading days to realize any gain, though one day has been enough sometimes. The point is, traders have been quick to switch gears lately, and you can't squeeze blood from a turnip. 

The chart of the NASDAQ 100 Trust (more commonly known as the "QQQQ's") drives the point home. They've been range-bound between $41.50 and $44.80 for a while, but that 3 point (+/-) range has been enough to scrape off several small gains.

Of course, even capturing 2 of those 3 possible points on the QQQQ's isn't much of a reward ...unless you have leverage. Some index options may be able to turn those 4% swings for the stock into a 20% to 50% gain on an option. In all fairness, doing this is probably of no interest to true 'investors'. Traders, however, have been challenged to find anything worth a second look; this may actually bear fruit. 

By the way, Bollinger Bands have helped a little in spotting likely reversal points. They'll also let me know when the range-bound habit has been broken...by failing to repel the market back in the opposite direction. The VIX or VXN has been helpful too.
 

	What's With The New 'Morning Call'?

For those who don't do so on a daily basis, it's now officially worth checking the blog every day. 

The last few weeks have reaffirmed to me that being in the market requires constant attention, so I've committed to sharing some thoughts and observations every day in the 'Morning Call' to help you make the most of whatever is going on (or not going on) with stocks at the time.

I'll also try and throw in a stock trading idea most every day. These aren't necessarily ideas like our official 'trade alert' picks. In fact, I don't expect to follow up with any of the names once I mention them; they're just something that caught my eye that particular morning. These will include bearish/shorting ideas as well.

I also promised on March 19th I'd try and stay abreast of major sector and industry trends; the 'Morning Call' is the place I intend to do that. It won't be a daily occurrence, but probably more like a weekly event.

Anyway, that's what it is - we're now giving you everything from soup to nuts.
 

	What They Left Out

If you missed Friday's news about Smart Energy Solutions' (OTCBB: SMGY) new partner OnGuard - which we blogged - here are the essentials of what you missed. 

OnGuard Dealer Services will now be reselling Smart Energy's 'Battery Brain' (a car battery preservation device) to new and used car dealers. It won't be called a Battery Brain though; OnGuard will be using their own label. It's the same piece of equipment however, purchased on a wholesale basis from Smart Energy.

The 'big deal' is just this - over 40 million used cars and nearly 20 million new cars are sold every year in the United States. That's an enormous market the company can tap into. Even a tiny penetration could be a boon for Smart Energy, who to-date have sold a total of about 190,000 units (since early 2005). They're now selling them at a rate of about 7000 per month. Keep both numbers in the back of your head for a minute.

The press release just confirmed that a deal had been signed between the two organizations. What the press release didn't describe was just how 'big' these two companies are thinking this deal could be.

To get the details, I had to dig into Smart Energy's 8-K from March 24th. I'm just going to cut and paste most of the key paragraph here. The one thing I want you to notice is the unit numbers being thrown around. Here's the wording...

The Agreement also provides that the Registrant will grant OnGuard 1,000,000 warrants at an exercise price of $.50 and a term of five years, if OnGuard achieves the minimum sales threshold of one hundred fifty thousand (150,000) units in the first year of the term. An additional 1,000,000 warrants will be granted if OnGuard achieves minimum sales threshold of three hundred thousand (300,000) units over two years from the date of the Agreement. OnGuard will be granted a total of 3,000,000 warrants should it achieve a sales threshold of seven hundred fifty thousand (750,000) units over two years ....sales threshold of 150,000 units in year one but achieved the minimum sales threshold of 300,000 in year 2, OnGuard will still be granted the combined 2,000,000 warrants. 

Do you think they'd do so haphazardly? I have to believe they sized up the market versus the potential of the device, and felt strongly about being able to sell tons of them. If they do, the next couple of years could be breakout years for Smart Energy. What I like best about the deal is this - now OnGuard is on the same side of the table as me, you, and Smart Energy...we all want to see the stock go higher. I think they know the best way they could do that is to market the heck out of the device. 

Anyway, now you know a little more than other investors who only read the press release.
 

We Value Your Feedback

Got comments, questions or suggestions? Send 'em on over: Email the Editor If you wish to send a written request or inquiry, please send it to our physical address: TGR Group, LLC 4653 Carmel Mtn Rd Suite 308 #402 San Diego, CA 92130

Subscribe

Note: Your email address will be kept strictly confidential, and will not be shared with any other entity for any purpose at any time. If you no longer wish to receive the Small Cap Network Newsletter, simply follow the instructions located at the bottom of every Small Cap Network Newsletter Edition.

Refer A Friend

Ensure Newsletter Delivery

Click Here or go to http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/compensation_disclosure/ to view our compensation on every company we have ever covered, or visit the following web address: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/profile_disclosure/ for our full profiles and http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/alert_disclosure/ for Trading Alerts. 

TGR Group, LLC has been paid a fee of $30,000 cash and 350,000 shares of newly issued restricted stock by Smart Energy Solutions for coverage of the Company.

On January 19th, 2007 TGR Group LLC entered into an agreement with Stock Group Media, Inc. (a wholly-owned subsidiary of Stock Group Information Systems, Inc.) whereby Stock Group Media, Inc. will provide $50,000 worth of advertising and marketing services to TGR Group, LLC in exchange for coverage of Stock Group Information Systems, Inc. on the Small Cap Network web site and newsletter.

From time to time TGR sells shares received as compensation for coverage of client companies. Shares received are sold in the open market. Since the shares are received as compensation for services as previously disclosed, and not for investment purposes, TGR does not view the sale of the shares as contradictory to any opinions delivered in the content. This should be viewed as a conflict of interest by shareholders or prospective shareholders of the client companies. 

TGR, its Members and Members' families, are forbidden by company policy to own, buy, sell or otherwise trade stock for their own benefit in the companies who appear in the publication unless specifically disclosed. 

All statements and expressions are the sole opinions of TGR and are subject to change without notice. A profile, description, or other mention of a company within SCN is neither an offer nor solicitation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. While we believe all sources of information to be factual and reliable, in no way do we represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof, nor the statements made herein. 

The profiles, critiques, and other editorial content of SCN may contain statements that appear foward relating to the expected capabilities of the companies mentioned herein. 

THE READER SHOULD VERIFY ALL CLAIMS AND DO THEIR OWN DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE INVESTING IN ANY SECURITIES MENTIONED. INVESTING IN SECURITIES IS SPECULATIVE AND CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE INFORMATION FOUND IN THIS PROFILE IS PROTECTED BY THE COPYRIGHT LAWS OF THE UNITED STATES AND MAY NOT BE COPIED, OR REPRODUCED IN ANY WAY WITHOUT THE EXPRESSED, WRITTEN CONSENT OF TGR. 

We encourage our readers to invest carefully and read the investor information available at the web sites of the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") at http://www.sec.gov and/or the National Association of Securities Dealers ("NASD") at http://www.nasd.com. We also strongly recommend that you read the SEC advisory to investors concerning Internet Stock Fraud, which can be found at http://www.sec.gov/consumer/cyberfr.htm. Readers can review all public filings by companies at the SEC's EDGAR page. The NASD has published information on how to invest carefully at its web site.